Ethiopians had high hopes for a peaceful and democratic transition following the ascension of Abiy Ahimed Ali as Prime Minister in April 2018. Ethiopians in and outside the country rallied behind the new PM and his reform measures during his early days in office. Abiy also won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for the rapprochement he made between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the reform measures and the promises for further reforms. However, all the reform measures and promises gradually proved that they were meant for public stunt as the Nobel Laureate began to lead a war against his own people (in Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara regions), the country drifted away from democracy and descended into authoritarianism. In this blog, I try to show Ethiopia’s swift descent to authoritarianism through (1) dismantling the 2015-17 movement leaders, (2) dismantling the cohesion of the nation, (3) a crackdown on the opposition, (4) repressing dissenting views, and (5) a lack of accountability. There needs to be a national awakening for non-violent resistance movements to counter Abiy’s authoritarianism.
(1) Dismantling the 2015-17 movement leaders
In his attempt to centralize state power, Abiy has dismantled the two teams that were leading the 2015-17 resistance movements from within and outside the country. He rushed to dismantle what was known as Team Lemma — an informal team comprising three individuals. Lemma Megerssa and Gedu Andargachew, who, at the time, were presidents of the Oromia and Amhara regional states, respectively. These two were the core members alongside Abiy Ahimed himself. This team, in coordination with the team in the diaspora that was led by Jawar Mohammed, a prominent leader of the 2015 and 2017 Oromo protests, led the 2015 and 2017 popular protests from within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (—a front consisted of four ethnic based parties including the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM)), and paved the way for the ascension of Abiy Ahmed to the helm of power as the Prime Minister. Abiy has successfully dismantled Team Lemma, expelling Lemma Megersa and Gedu Andargachew — key political figures remembered for not only working for the cohesion of the people in Oromia and Amhara in support of Team Lemma but also in leading Abiy to his premiership. Lemma and Gedu are now in exile, fearing for their lives as the person they worked for in his rise to power is after them. While these two key political figures are known for their mobilization of the protesters in their respective regions — Oromia and Amhara, during the popular protest, Abiy, who had the post of deputy President of the Oromia region, was not in the picture of the forefront of the 2015-2017 popular movement.
Beyond dismantling the team in the country, he has also dismantled the team in the diaspora that was led by Jawar Mohammed. Despite their key roles during the movement, Abiy has placed Jawara Mohammed and his allies in out-of-the-way places after he rise to power. Jawar had an immeasurable contribution to the pre-2018 movement to succeed. He successfully mobilized and led the movement with social media platforms and later the Oromia Media Network (OMN) that he established, mobilizing funds from the supporters of the movement. Particularly, his mobilization of the youth in Oromia through his Facebook account was a game-changer. During the height of the movement, he could be able to galvanize the youth in Oromia to come out to the street and resist the repressive EPRDF despite the EPRDF’s brutal responses that led the youth in the Amhara region to join the movement with the mantra ‘the Oromo blood is my blood’. After the movement was successful in ending the dominance of the TPLF with the rise of Abiy Ahimed, who was affiliated with the OPDO, Jawar returned to the country from exile. This was not seen positively from the Abiy side, as Jawar was a real contender with significant support, particularly in Oromia. Jawar, who was preparing to run for the 2021 national election, ended up in jail for 18 months and later fled the country upon his release. He is now back in exile, resisting Abiy’s authoritarianism from the diaspora.
(2) Dismantling the cohesion of the nation
Abiy has received widespread support from Ethiopians in and outside the country during his rise to power. Particularly, in a way that has never been seen in the last five decades of the political history of the country, Ethiopians inside the country and those in the diaspora united and supported him. Although the diaspora has been a strong opposition to the EPRDF, dominated by the TPLF, Abiy, who was himself from the EPRDF, has enjoyed the unprecedented support of the nation that aspired to see a new face in the country’s politics. There was a strong aspiration from a large segment of Ethiopians, both in the country and diaspora, for a non-TPLF premier. Abiy, coming from the OPDO and rising to power at this juncture in the country’s politics, has enjoyed this unprecedented support.
However, Abiy didn’t take long to consider the unity as a threat to his power. He seemed to have feared the nation that was united and rallied behind him during his rise to power. He had early understood the multiple demands of the nation that was united and rallied behind him. He also understood that he cannot materialize the demands and please this nation. He decided to destroy the unity, fearing that this unity could have turned against him. He successfully divided the nation that was united and rallied behind his government. Ethiopia today is a country deeply divided along ethnic lines, with increased polarization. This fragmentation is deliberately sustained by the ruling regime. Abiy failed to establish an all-inclusive government that could work to utilize the cohesion of the nation for the betterment of the country. Instead, he preferred to deepen the identity-based divide that was begun by the TPLF before him. He turned the country into a place where the nation is deeply divided along ethnic lines, and identity-based violent conflicts are a new normal.
(3) Crackdown on the opposition
Abiy had deliberately postponed the 2020 national election with the pretext of COVID-19. The purpose was to buy time for his newly established Prosperity Party (PP) to take all the votes beyond staying in office longer than the term he was mandated as a PM upon his appointment. It was also to systematically exclude the opposition in the Oromia regional state from the election. Abiy anticipated that he could lose the election to the opposition in the Oromia region. Particularly, the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) has Jawar Mohammed, a prominent contender of Abiy in the region, as Jawar joined the OFC and began to prepare to run for the election. Abiy, however, has deliberately jailed Jawar (and other opposition politicians such as Bekele Gerba from the same party) before the election. Abiy, by jailing these politicians in Oromia, put his contenders out of the game of the election. As a result, Abiy’s PP emerged as the only party running for the 2021 national election as the parties pulled out of the 6th national election following the imprisonment of their high-profile candidates. Finally, although Abiy claimed a landslide victory for his party in the election where his own party alone took part.
The regime’s crackdown on the opposition that began with jailing Abiy’s high-profile contenders continued to the extent that elected members of parliament are unlawfully jailed despite their legal immunity. Christian Tadele, who has been a member of parliament since 2021 jailed only because he raised critical questions in the parliament. Abiy has also banned Lidetu Ayalew, a leading opposition leader, from returning to the country from his medical trip in the US. Eskindir Nega, another opposition leader, and others engaged in armed struggle as the country’s democratic space was completely closed.
Abiy doesn’t even tolerate critiques from his own party. The sacking and jailing of Taye Dendea Aredo, who was the state minister of the Ministry of Peace, following his speech supporting the march for peace scheduled on December 11, 2023, which was later prohibited by the regime, and speaking to stop the war by which brothers killing each other, proves the complete authoritarian turn and the closing of the democratic space by the regime. Dendea has been openly criticizing Abiy’s regime for the bloodshed in Oromia and across the country, which was verified later by the Reuters report.
Filagot Abrham, a TikTok content creator, explained the current Ethiopian situation with her makeup in the picture during the Gumma Film Awards in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on June 9, 2023.
(4) Repressing dissenting views
Abiy’s regime quickly began to repress dissenting views. It has been jailing journalists, political activists, and academics who criticised the government. Those who feared the regime’s repression of dissenting views have already fled the country and are working for democratic reforms from exile. Abiy’s regime has also jailed members of parliament despite the legal immunity they have. Journalists, opposition members, and political activists face persecution and crackdown from the regime, which doesn’t tolerate dissenting views. Opposition groups that tried to speak are either assassinated or jailed, facing torture and other inhumane treatments.
(5) Lack of accountability
Abiy’s regime has been engaged in extrajudicial killings throughout the country since 2018. The killings, according to Angasa Ibrahim, a member of the Ethiopian Parliament, are commanded from the Oromia regional state office. This is later corroborated by the Reuters Report that Korree Negegna, Peace Committee, set up by the PM and led by the leaders in Oromia, has been behind the killings and abductions across the Oromia region. Moreover, there is no accountability for the rising abduction, extrajudicial killings, and political assassinations taking place in the country since 2018. For instance, the Oromia regional leader still stays in power despite the bloodshed in the Oromia region since he came to power in April 2019. Moreover, there have been armed conflicts in Oromia, Tigray, and Amhara regions where state-sponsored mass killings are reported. Yet, there is no accountability for the state-sponsored mass killings in different parts of the country since Abiy came to power.
Conclusion
A mobilization for non-violent resistance and movements to change the authoritarian regime is key. Only a nation that is united for the same democratic cause and resists the authoritarian takeover could bring back democracy. There needs to be a non-violent and peaceful resistance to this authoritarian takeover and to restore democracy. Ethiopians in and outside the country should stand together and resist Abiy’s complete authoritarian takeover. Civil society organizations and the international community should also support and encourage non-violent resistance movements that work to restore democracy in the country, beyond putting pressure on the authoritarian regime.
*Mamo, SA is a researcher specializing in democracy, violent conflicts, and authoritarianism.