By Mamo, SA*
Despite the unprecedented support Abiy Ahimed Ali received when he became Prime Minister in April 2018 and the undeserved 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, he has led armed conflict, displaced Ethiopians in the centers of major cities, suppressed dissent, destroyed opposition groups, and deliberately starved Ethiopians. Now he is staging a sham election scheduled for June 1, 2026. In this blog, I show that Ethiopia is bracing for a sham election. This so-called election is happening amid a lack of cohesion among Ethiopians, the absence of an opposition, and, above all, Abiy’s lust for power.
Dismantling the cohesion of the nation
Abiy has successfully dismantled and deeply divided Ethiopians both in and outside the country based on identity fault lines. As he appeared democratic during his early days in office, a large segment of Ethiopians rallied behind him. Even the diaspora that has opposed the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (1991-2019), from which Abiy emerged as PM, gave its support for Abiy during his early days in office. After he made sure that power was in his hands, Abiy betrayed everyone and all the promises to open up the democratic space and democratization proved to be a lie. He has also deliberately provoked armed political groups, such as the Oromia Liberation Army (OLA), the military wing of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara FANO, to engage in the armed conflict. He has succeeded in getting all of these groups on the battlefield, fighting their own brothers and sisters. The armed conflict that began shortly after he came to power has been ongoing in Oromia and Amhara, except in Tigray, where there has been neither war nor peace. Ethiopians have not only been suffering from the atrocities of the civil war, deliberately caused by the person whom they trusted and supported during his eight days in office, but also have been deeply divided among themselves based on identity. He has successfully destroyed the cohesion of the society that once stood behind him in their support, in hopes of a peaceful and democratic Ethiopia.
Destroying the opposition
Abiy has also destroyed the opposition camp and ensured that no strong rivals that contend for power exist in the country. There is no opposition capable of winning, or even holding, a single seat in the House of People’s Representatives, much less forming a government. He killed opposition politicians such as Bate Urgessa and disposed of the body at a dumpster site in Meki town, Oromia region. He also had the famous singer and political activist Hachalu Hundessa assassinated and blamed the opposition. Vocal opposition figures such as Christain Tadele, Yohannes Boayalew, Bekele Gerba, Jawar Mohammed, Dejene Tafa, Gurmessa Ayano, and Addisu Bulala were jailed. He blocked Lidetu Ayelew, a vocal critic and opposition figure, from returning to Ethiopia after a medical trip to the United States. Those who lost hope in peaceful political struggle, such as Iskindir Nega and Brigadier General Tefera Mamo, joined the Amhara FANO armed group. Others, like Bekele Gerba and Jawar Mohammed, fled after their release from prison, fearing for their lives. As Abiy’s regime became brutal, significant members of his inner circle defected: Lemma Megerssa, Gedu Andargachew, Milkessa Midega, Taye Dendea, Seyoum Mesfin (PhD), Asemahagn Asres, Kemal Gelchu, and Tefera Mamo did so at different times. While General Tefera Mamo joined the armed conflict with the Amhara FANO, others fled for safety and are living in exile. Taye Dendea was imprisoned simply for opposing Abiy’s repression and lies. This shows that Abiy is dangerous not just to opposition members, but also to those in his inner circle. This sham election features only Abiy and his Prosperity Party (PP) as candidates. It won’t even take place in large parts of Oromia and Amhara due to the ongoing armed conflict in these regions. Moreover, there will be no election in Tigray Regional State since the TPLF rejected Abiy’s plan from the start.
Abiy’s lust for power
Furthermore, Abiy’s lust for power, to the extent of becoming an emperor, is also an important factor behind the sham election. Abiy has centralized state power and turned authoritarian as soon as he came to power. He dissolved the EPRDF and established the PP in his attempt to centralize state power. Deliberately destroying the cohesion of the nation, displacing city residents from the center of major cities with the hoax of corridor development, and deliberately starving the society, he is certain that power is in his hands indefinitely. His ultimate interest is to stay in power, weakening the nation by destroying its cohesion, weakening the citizens economically, and silencing and making them dependent on the system he has established. His PP is the only candidate in this sham election.
Source: The Economist
To conclude, Ethiopia is bracing for the sham election that Abiy’s regime is staging to show that there is an election. This so-called election couldn’t be free, fair, and democratic from the very outset, as Abiy’s regime has destroyed all the criteria for a free, fair, and democratic election. Although this sham election will definitely grant Abiy five years, he shouldn’t be allowed to stay in power, as he is behind all the crises in the country and even the Horn of Africa. Thus, there should be a non-violent resistance to Abiy’s ouster to bring the country to peace and order. Abiy must go for the sake of the country’s peace and stability, and the non-violent resistance mobilization needs to be directed towards this end. The African Union, which has a history of validating sham elections across Africa, should refrain from validating Abiy’s sham election. The international community should closely follow the crises in the country and support any non-violent resistance movements against this repressive authoritarian regime, beyond denying credibility for this sham election.
*Mamo, SA is a researcher specialising in contentious politics, democracy, violent conflicts, and authoritarianism.